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Summer heat wave is approaching: first rain brings hope for dry soils!
Current weather forecasts show a possible heat wave for Luxembourg in June, after a rainy May. Find out about the upcoming weather changes and their impact.
Summer heat wave is approaching: first rain brings hope for dry soils!
On May 23, 2025, a new weather forecast shows promising changes for Luxembourg in the coming days and weeks. Tageblatt.lu reports that meteorological summer could bring a possible heat surge in June. After a long period of time, rain was recorded in the region on Wednesday evening and Thursday night. The Météo-Boulaide weather station on the Helperknapp campus in Bruch recorded 1.2 l/m² of rain - the first rainfall since it went into operation on May 8th.
A slight increase in the chance of rain is forecast for the upcoming weekend. According to current analyzes by the European weather model ECMWF, 4-8 l/m² of rain is expected until Sunday, while the US GFS even predicts up to 16 l/m². These amounts of rain could help to relieve pressure on the dried out soils in certain areas, but remain small compared to the existing rainfall deficit.
Outlook for June
The medium-term outlook points to a potentially summery to hot phase at the beginning of June. A change in the overall weather situation is expected: A low over northwest Europe is positioned in combination with a high pressure area that extends from the Mediterranean to Eastern Europe. This meteorological constellation could direct warm to hot air masses to Central Europe and thus also to Luxembourg.
Daily highs of 24 to 28 degrees are expected, although the 30 degree mark could be reached or even exceeded in the southeast of the country. However, there are uncertainties regarding the exact intensity of the heat and the location of the pressure centers.
Climate change and weather forecasts
In addition to the current weather forecasts, the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project is mentioned, which aims to develop an ensemble forecast system for climate change. This project relies on state-of-the-art, high-resolution global and regional Earth system models developed in Europe. The models are validated with quality-controlled grid datasets to produce an objective probabilistic estimate of the uncertainty of future climate change on seasonal to decadal timescales. ecmwf.int offers a comprehensive collection of seasonal and annual hindcasts created using various forecasting systems.
May 2025 is expected to go down in history as one of the driest months and one of the driest springs on record. These developments raise both hopes for warmer weather and concerns about the region's ongoing rainfall deficit.